Three Dan Carter penalties helped the All Blacks to a tense 19-14 victory over the Aussies in Hong Kong

Australia va New Zealand, Saturday, Sky Sports 8.30AM

No home advantage for either side and the Kiwi's have moved Dan Carter to inside centre which suggests the kicking game will be important to them as they try and dominate territory with the boot and attack with a more open game in the right areas of the field such as the Aussie 22.

That could negate the Aussie changes of a muscular midfield - Ryan Cross the league convert and stalwart, and the always superb Stirling Mortlock. That midfield tackles hard and has punch going forward but little deception.

Luke Burgess back at scrum-half for the Aussies is a plus as he has more bite than Sam Cordingley and Richard Brown will be a terrier in the back row but he does lack the go forward of Wyclif Palu. Also, Drew Mitchell for Lote Tuqiri is one class winger replacing another but with very different styles. Watch if David Pocock, 20, comes on in the back row from the bench because he is a monster.

If the All Blacks were at full strength I would back them now but Carter to centre and Mils Muliaina at home weakens the backs. It still should be an All Black win but at 5/18 they are short. Yet I have to back them because if Stephen Donald struggles at 10 they can revert to normal and get Carter in the shotgun position.