Think through the situation rather than just checking behind reflexively and missing out on some value

During the past three years I’ve watched a lot of people playing no-limit Hold’em, partly as an enthusiastic spectator but a lot more as an analyst commenting on other people’s play on TV. And I can honestly say that once people know the basics of the game and strategy, the biggest single mistake they make is not value betting enough or correctly. Most players actually lose more money from not getting paid enough on their winning hands than they do from calling when behind.

Perhaps this is a good starting point then – to think about failing to value bet as lost money, in the same way as if you had money taken from your stack. It’s especially important against weaker players who call too much – you must punish them for this by betting often and strongly when you have the goods. Remember, maximising your profit is just as much a part of winning poker as minimising your losses.

Getting paid

In case you’re unsure of what value betting is I’m talking about making a bet that you expect a worse hand to call. Or, to put it another way, it’s an attempt to maximise the value of a winning hand. This is easy to write but tough to consistently put into action – and it makes a big difference between the consistent winners in poker and those that struggle to break even at the tables.

Okay, let me break down what every poker player should be trying to achieve. Essentially it’s a two-stage process – first of all you need to establish that making a bet for value is appropriate; next you have to find the right amount to bet. Both are skills that you need to work on and refine to extract the maximum value from your hands.

Guiding you to when you should and shouldn’t value bet is hard, though, as there are an endless amount of possible situations. In some cases it will be very clear. If you hold a very strong hand your mission is usually very simple – say a quiet Hosanna! to yourself – and try and get as much money into the pot as you can. It is, however, extraordinary how often players fail in this by trying to slow-play too often.

The difficulty arises when you have a marginal hand that may or may not be winning. The key question to ask in this situation is: will the villain call with a worse hand and how often will he do this? Often there can be a fine line between this and betting when you will only be called if beaten, which can be a big mistake.

Let’s look at a simple example of when you should bet for value. You hold A-K and, after raising pre-flop in position, have bet the K-10-8-4 board on the flop and turn with your solitary opponent calling each time. At the river the board is K-10-8-4-2 with no possible flushes and your opponent checks again.

This is a situation where you should almost always value bet. Very few players will be tricky enough to hold a very strong hand and be planning a river check-raise. It’s far more likely that he has either a mediocre hand he thinks might be good (such as a worse King, a Ten or a pocket pair) or possibly something like a busted straight draw. There’s a small chance that you’re beaten but a good chance that he has a worse hand he may call with, so making a value bet is essential.

Clearly this is a straightforward example compared to some of the harder decisions you will face at the table. As ever in poker a whole slew of variables will be at work in these decisions – in particular the range of hands your opponent holds and how much of this range consists of hands he’ll call with. But there is also his view of you and your bets to consider, the history between the two of you and so on.

Remember, you must adjust how lightly you value bet in relation to how lightly your opponents will call you down; for instance, the more likely they think you’re bluffing the poorer your hand can be when you value bet.

The important thing is to make sure you’re asking yourself if an opponent will call with a worse hand and being specific about what those lesser hands may be. It’s vital that you think through the situation rather than just checking behind reflexively and missing out on some value.

The right amount

The second important factor to value betting is making sure you wager the optimal amount. This is obviously a generalisation but the error players make here is that they usually do not bet enough. Often players fall into the trap of betting smaller when they are sure they are ahead in order to guarantee a call. There are some situations where you might have good reason to think that an opponent’s hand is very weak and it is at those points that trying to eke out just a few more chips with a small value bet may be correct.

However, in the main you should bear in mind that your objective is not just to make money on that individual bet, but also to maximise your value in the long run.

Therefore you shouldn’t just be trying to make a bet that is guaranteed to get a call, as you will be betting too little on many occasions.

A completely separate article could be written on expectation (and probably will be in the coming months) so I won’t go into too much detail here, but I’ll give a very simple example. Let’s say there’s a situation where you could make a small bet that is going to be called almost all the time, as opposed to a very large bet that will only be called a small amount of the time; in this example the large bet may still be correct.

So, for instance, if a bet of 1000 will be called 80 percent of the time it has an expected value (i.e. over the long run) of 800. In the same situation if a bet of 10,000 will be called just 10 percent of the time it has an expected value of 1000 in the long run. Therefore the bigger bet is the more profitable action, even though your opponent will fold the vast majority of the time.

Beyond this theoretical exercise the way that you should translate this into your play is to usually make a significant bet – say, three-quarters of the pot – when value-betting. If you’re in doubt about how much to bet lean towards betting more. In fact it can sometimes be correct to overbet – especially if you can reasonably move all-in – as the payoff is so great when you’re called. If you’re viewed as an aggressive player and it looks like you may be bullying it could have even more value.

Of course it’s also vital to know when opponents are value betting and unlikely to be bluffing. It’s important to note their tendencies. Because so many players bet smaller, especially on the river when they’re trying to get paid off, your decision to call them should reflect this and disappoint them if they’re giving you this information. Also, try and have an idea of how your opponent views your hand to understand the times he’s trying to bluff you out of the hand compared to the times he’s trying to get paid.

In Super/System Doyle Brunson says value betting is what no-limit Hold’em is all about. Don’t leave money on the table – make a hand, then bet, bet, bet and take those suckers down to value town.