It’s three-handed with blinds of 5,000/10,000. Each player has enough chips in front of them to pose a threat. Mike Matusow limps in first position with K♥-2♥. Daniel Negreanu completes from the small blind with 8♦-7♥. Mike Sexton checks the big blind with 7♦-3♠. The pot is 30,000 and the flop comes

9♥-Q♠-3♥. Negreanu decides to check, Sexton also checks, only for Matusow to follow with the same move. The turn is the A♦. Negreanu checks, Sexton checks, and Matusow bets 20,000. Negreanu folds and Sexton calls. The pot is 70,000 and the river brings the J♦. Sexton checks and Matusow bets 60,000. This bet is a pure bluff, and an excellent one at that. Matusow bets 60,000 to win 70,000, meaning that Sexton only needs to fold about 46% of the time for him to make a profit on the play (we can safely assume that no hand worse than Matusow’s will call).

Given Sexton’s actual holding, it’s very likely that he’ll fold often enough to make this a profitable bet for Matusow.

Matusow’s bet is almost certainly profitable in terms of fold equity, but unfortunately it goes awry. Sexton actually calls and wins – one of the best calls of the entire 2006 World Series. Sometimes you can make the right move and still lose out in the short term! It’s a cruel world.