How do you bet on bookings?

You can have a spread bet on the bookings market with any of the big four spread-betting firms – Sporting Index, IG Sport, Cantor Index and Cantor Sport.

So is it just a bet on how many bookings there will be in a game?

No, it’s actually a bet on bookings and sendings-off. But it’s an index bet, which means points are awarded for every yellow and red card.

You what?

Every yellow card is worth 10pts and every red card is worth 25pts. So when you see a bookie’s spread of, for example, 40-44 for bookings in a Newcastle vs Aston Villa game, it doesn’t mean the bookies think there will be between 40 and 44 bookings in the game. That would be total madness. 40-44 is a points spread based on the points awarded for every booking and sending off.

Right, so a spread of 40-44 equates to what exactly...

Four yellow cards, roughly speaking, or two yellows and a red card. It’s basically an estimation of how many points will be racked up by both sides in the game.

I get it. So I’m basically selling or buying based on the spread figure?

Exactly. If you think the points total of bookings and sendings-off will come to less than 40, you sell at 40. If you think the points total will be more than 44, you buy at 44.

So let’s say I buy at 44. What happens?

You need to pick your stake. You can pick £2, £5, £10 or whatever. Let’s say you pick £10 and buy at 44. The game ends with five yellow cards, making a bookings total (or make-up) of 50pts (because each booking is worth 10pts). The difference between your buy (44) and the total make-up (50) is six, so you have won six times your stake, which equals £60.

But what if the game finished with just one yellow card?

In that case the bookings make-up would have been 10. The difference between the figure you bought at (44) and the final make-up (10) is 34, so you would have lost 34 times your stake, equalling £340.

Damn – that sounds a lot!

It is. This is a very volatile market – the final make-up could realistically range from 0 to around 100 for a game featuring two or three red cards and several bookings. This means you should be very careful and keep your stakes very low to avoid big losses. Also, you should follow the market closely without betting before you try your hand. We also suggest you do as much research as possible before placing a bet.

What kind of research?

Two factors spring to mind: the teams and the referee. Check out how many cautions and red cards a team picks up. Some teams obviously have worse disciplinary records than others. Also, keep an eye on the records of individual players, because anybody included or missing for a certain game can make a difference to a team’s likely bookings make-up. The other key factor is the referee – who the man in the middle is can make a huge difference to the bookings make-up. Make sure you know who’s in charge of the match and research his stats. If he’s card-happy, the make-up might be bigger than you’d usually expect. If he’s from the ‘stern word but nothing more’ school, the make-up may be lower.

Okay, so what next?

For more info have a look at www.sportingindex.com, www.igsport.com, www.cantorsport.co.uk or www.spreadfair.com. Remember, practise ‘virtually’ first, do all the research you can and keep your stakes low.