What on earth is shirt number betting?

It’s a bet on the sum of the shirt numbers from every goalscorer in a match. It’s most popular among spread bettors, but is steadily becoming more common among some of the fixed odds bookmakers.

Can you explain how it works in a bit more detail?

Take the example of Sparta Prague vs Arsenal in the Champions League where the spread is set at 27-30. Let’s say for example the result is a 1-1 draw with Slepicka (shirt number 10) hitting the net for Sparta and Henry (shirt number 14) scoring for Arsenal. Adding those two numbers together gives a total of 24, and a profit of 3pts if you sold the spread at 27.

That doesn’t sound like much of a profit to us...

True, but a 0-0 draw gives a huge 27pt profit on the sell. On the other side if you bought the spread at 30, a 3-1 Arsenal win with Henry (14), Fabregas (15) and Reyes (9) scoring for Arsenal with Slepicka (10) scoring for Sparta gives a total of 48 and a pretty tasty 19pt profit.

Can I place a fixed odds bet on the same market?

Yes, although the offerings on various bookmakers can vary widely, so it pays to check around. Stan James offered a three-way market on player shirt numbers. Still using the Arsenal Sparta game as an example, the odds were 6/4 for a total less than 20, 2/1 for 20-36 and 13/8 for a total over 36. Betfred offered a similar market, albeit with vastly different odds. Victor Chandler, meanwhile, offered a ‘fixed spread’ market, where they set the spread at 25. A bet either above or below that number was a straightforward 10/11 shot.

Is this an easy market to make money on?

In a word, no. But if you do your research then you stand a better chance. Every squad is different, and some teams’ top scorers have higher numbers on their backs than others. Thierry Henry (14) is likely to push the total up more than Ruud van Nistelrooy (10). And watch out for teams with high scoring players with low shirt numbers or prolific strikers with numbers like 24 on their backs, who are obviously likely to push the total up.

Isn’t it still a bit of a lottery though?

Yes and no. Effectively you are trying to guess both the number of goals and the identity of the players scoring them, which would suggest it’s a very difficult market to accurately assess. As a result most bettors would mark it down as a bit of a scorecast-style mug punter bet. But if your research tells you the fixture is likely to be a low scoring affair and the spread is set at 27-30 then you might feel the downside risk is pretty minimal and decide it’s worth a punt.

Any tips on where to find the value?

Stay away from buying the spread when it’s in the high 30s, especially for teams with a history of being involved in low scoring encounters. And keep an eye out for line-ups where regular goalscorers have high numbers on their backs, such as Eidur Gudjohnsen (22) at Chelsea.

Okay, you’ve got my interest. Where should I go to place a bet on shirt numbers this weekend?

For a spread bet check out www.sportingindex.com or www.cantorsport.co.uk. For fixed odds bets try www.stanjames.com or www.betfred.com, but don’t expect markets for anything but the major event Premiership and Champions League games.