Critical to success this summer will be an ability to adopt different styles of play against certain nations

Since retiring from playing football and moving into the media, one thing has never changed – I always do my research. An understanding of what’s in front of me still remains my top priority. If you don’t come prepared, whether you’re a commentator in the media gantry or a foreign manager taking the reins in the Premiership, you’ve got no chance.

Managers more than anyone else need to be prepared. Take the World Cup and Sven Goran Eriksson. He’s certainly been doing his homework over the last couple of years – just look at how eager he’s been to keep a close eye on his squad players, attending matches both at home and on the Continent.

Then take a look at German coach Jurgen Klinsmann, who conducts his duties from, er, America. The US resident spends eight hours on a plane every time he wants to watch domestic games, and has to rely on scouts for the matches he can’t attend. If that helps his research, I’m a banana.

That’s just one reason why the hosts won’t be successful this year. Sure, the home advantage is a big help, but the Germans’ defence simply doesn’t match up and they’re too dependant on the form and fitness of their star player, Michael Ballack. I can’t see the value with them, even with odds as good as 17/2. Europe alone has two sides standing ahead of them – the Dutch (14/1) and, of course, England (7/1).

Dutch courage

Holland, with a style of play that’s Europe’s equivalent of Brazil’s, have a great chance. They can also rely on a huge boost from the massed ranks of the Orange Army, who’ll take full advantage of the finals being so close to home. People talk about the Irish and English following – and it’s great – but the Dutch will have an extra man come their opening game against Serbia and Montenegro.

That said, at times Holland still need to stop knocking the ball around with such nonchalant flair. I remember watching them in the 1998 World Cup semi-final against Brazil. After going a goal down, they started to play the ball about at pace, using the width of the pitch to great effect. It worked too, with Patrick Kluivert nodding home a header to equalise. But after getting back into the game, they started passing the ball about again in their usual manner. Their momentum was lost, the game went to penalties and the rest is football history.

Critical to success in Germany this summer will be an ability to adopt different styles of play against certain nations. In England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland, we have a very set way of playing our football, whoever we’re up against, but other sides can – and will – adapt more easily in Germany. While England’s style generally serves them well, Sven’s preparation on the opposition is the key to a more flexible style of play.

Adieu, Les Bleus

As well as the hosts, I remain unimpressed by the chances of France (13/1) and Italy (10/1), with the former a shadow of the side that dominated football from 1998 to 2000, when they claimed both the World Cup and the European Championships. They are a footballing nation in decline, and their record in qualification weighs in favour of that argument. From ten games they only managed five wins.

Yeah, they were unbeaten in the process, but their paltry tally of 14 goals in Group 4 was less than both Switzerland and Israel. At the back they were solid enough, but Ireland could easily have taken three points from the draw in France, and only a piece of Thierry Henry magic sealed a win in Dublin by one goal. Like Ballack for Germany, the weight of expectancy upon the Arsenal star is crushing.

Meanwhile, the Italians really haven’t got enough punch up front. There’s something missing there. Christian Vieri and Felipe Inzaghi are all a bit hit-and-miss, while Francesco Totti is suffering from injury.

Disciples of discipline

Elsewhere, the African nations’ hopes are being headed by the Ivory Coast. They have to muscle their way out of Group C with both Holland and Argentina in the ranks, but this isn’t unrealistic. The Africans play without fear, much like the Brazilians. They don’t worry about leaving a hole here and a hole there – they just play to their strengths. That’s something England don’t do enough of. With players like Didier Drogba and Kolo Toure, the Ivory Coast will relish their maiden World Cup finals voyage.

The African nations have, on the whole, become more disciplined in recent years thanks in part, perhaps, to the fact that more of them have taken on European coaches. Yes Cameroon and Nigeria impressed us back in the 1990s, but they lacked this key ingredient. Forget the 100/1 shot for the outright, but Frenchman Henri Michel could lead one of the surprise packages in the Ivory Coast this summer.

However, the final word has to go to England, who have every chance of winning the tournament with best odds of 7/1. Remember, preparation will be the key. With a well-rounded squad containing plenty of match-winners, this ingredient could really sprinkle some life into Eriksson’s hopes to end on a high.