If you ask a fan if his side will win and they say no, then get on, because the chances are they’ll be proved right

We’ve read in the pages of InsideEdge how dangerous the lure of patriotic punting can be. Engl¬and’s price to win the big football competitions is always artificially low as a direct factor of that. People get that surge of patriotism, that “Of course we can win it!” optimism that causes them to part with their hard-earned wedge. Of course, the winners have almost always been the bookies.

Patriotism and optimism, you see, are two of the most dangerous emotions to enter a sports punter’s head. The minute your hopes and dreams begin to enter into your thought processes, you’re a goner. As it happens, England do have a great chance of winning the World Cup next summer in Germany, but if you’re going to get on, do it now, not in May or early June when we’ll probably be 7.00 shots or less. There’s no value there.

Much has been said about the damaging effect patriotism and optimism has when betting, particularly on football, but what of the other side of the coin? Well, from my own experience I’ve found out, somewhat bizarrely, that negativity and depression can actually make you money.

In my case, my team, Gillingham, have been playing like a pub team for most of this season (and the two seasons before that in truth – but we’ll leave that aside) – and while there is always the hope that we’ll turn things around and go on a run of wins, it simply isn’t happening.

With a huge injury list and players clearly not putting the required level of effort and commitment in, it only takes us to go a goal down, which we invariably do, and it’s game over. It’s something we’ve become all-too accustomed to this season. We’re one of the most consistent sides in the league. We consistently fail to win.

That little list of facts makes for depressing reading for me and my Gills-supporting mates, but within that negativity comes some light relief. At least we can make some money from it!

Nobody knows a team like its fans – and nobody knows when a team is going to lose like its fans. As a fan if his side will win and if they say yes, then his answer could be a result of hope, optimism or blind faith. If you ask a fan if his side will win and they say no, then get on, because the chances are they’ll be proved right. From my experience, football fans are a lot better at predicting defeats (or failures to win) than they are at predicting wins.

And this is something you can take full advantage of. If you’re not already registered, get signed up to the two big football fan networks in the UK, FootyMAD.net and Rivals.net. Go to one club’s message board on each network and sign up. Then you’ll have full read-and-post access to a wealth of knowledge on every club in England (and most in Scotland too). You’ll get a good cross-section of views, but you’ll certainly pick up valuable information on the teams you could bet on that weekend. If you find a board where there’s a universal view that they’ll get beat, the chances are they will.

Look for the value on the coupons and check the form tables, especially for the lower leagues. The transfer window and the financial strain on so many of the clubs down there means that there’s little opportunity to strengthen to help them out of a bad run of form. It’s worth checking to make sure teams aren’t benefiting from a glut of players returning from injury before putting your money on. Injuries can severely hit small squads in the lower divisions, so those struggling sides with key players still missing are the ones to oppose.

Choose your matches carefully. Home teams who are struggling in the league and in an established run of poor form are the clearest source of value here. In these cases, the home support can be quick to get on the backs of the players and/or the manager – and the price about an away win, either on the Win/Draw/Win markets or the Asian Handicaps, will usually be worth taking. Exchange punters will use this information as a perfect opportunity to lay the strugglers when they are at home – and are inexplicably priced as favourites on many occasions against anyone but the very top sides in the division.

It was a strategy that has made me money opposing my own team over the last few weeks. One freak home win against Blackpool a fortnight ago aside, I’ve made money every match, including laying Gillingham against non-league Burscough in the FA Cup. That was the perfect example of the fans knowing we’d get beat before the match. It was an absolutely stitched-on cup upset – and, sadly, we all knew it.

As a football fan, there’s no pleasure to be derived from earning money while your team gets beaten (again). But if there’s a shred of remorse in you when you consider opposing your side, just view it the same way I do. It’s simply compensation for having to endure another defeat (or bore draw, if you’re lucky).

I hope the Gills win their next league match, I really do. But I’m not stupid enough to back them. I’ll be doing the opposite.