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Financial Spread Betting
Bid targets

How can a company's successes and travails, takeover troubles and profit warnings make YOU rich? Scott Longley reflects on some recent moves on the markets.

Like the Royal Family, Dot Cotton and planned engineering works on the West Coast mainline, Marks And Sparks is a 'much-loved' British institution and as such the battle between Stuart Rose and Philip Green - now concluded in the former's favour - over who got to flog the nation its smalls had huge appeal as a spectator sport.

However, as a spread betting opportunity the tussle for M&S was something of a damp squib. There was some early money to be made. Indeed those Deputy Dawgs at the FSA are already looking into the trading patterns just prior to the announcement of Green's interest which suggest some 'speculative forays' were made, not least by Rose himself.

But with Green subsequently fluffing his lines, Rose has been left to get on with the job of repairing the recent damage to the company's bottom line. Arguably it is a tough ask but for the moment at least it looks like the hot money has moved on.

Regardless, the battle for the hearts and minds of M&S shareholders has at least fired up some interest in what would otherwise likely have been a moribund summer for the markets. The IPO market is running on empty at present and apart from some marked volatility in Vodafone (blame it on the hedge funds) and some shifting sands underneath the oils and the banks, the main markets are marking time before the business end of the year kicks into action in September.

However, there has been some activity further down the Footsie food chain that brought some notable winnings to punters at one spreads firm.

Back in November of last year, haulage contractor Tibbett & Britten issued a profits warning citing a downturn in both its UK and its Mexican businesses and the shares had been in the doldrums ever since. This news passed most of us by, but come early June, some shrewd players in the market obviously smelt something in the water and the share price began to show signs of life. Within a week that something was confirmed, as the company announced an official takeover approach from fellow logistics group Exel.

The shares shot up accordingly, rising 94.5p or 19% on 15 June to 584.5p on news of an approach. They gained a further 82p the next day when a bid of 668p-a-share was confirmed and then proceeded to rise above even this level when the unlikely story went around that Deutsche Post might be preparing itself for a spoiler move. This shows how merger and acquisition activity can often generate its own heat given the right target and the right conditions.

Ups and downs
Tibbett & Britten was certainly an encouraging tale for five punters at City Index. They shared over £500,000 between them, betting on the company receiving an approach. As such it offers an example of where financial spread betting can really work.

Unfortunately, though, June also offers an example of one of those 'punter beware' situations that are all too often ignored even by experienced traders.

All the firms said that trading on easyJet in May and June was brisk. 'Some people lost a fortune on that one,' says Tom Hougaard from City Index. Until very recently, the low-cost airlines looked to have the world at their feet. easyJet was a classic momentum play as escalating passenger numbers and rising profits quickly translated through to the share price, which until the start of this year was on a steep upward curve, peaking at an all-time high of 380p in mid-January.

But while some punters were drawn in by the positive updates, those looking at the broader picture could see clouds on the horizon. Competition within the industry was on the increase, not least from the national carriers looking to regain some ground in the short haul market by cutting their prices. Meanwhile, European Union regulatory investigations were moving to the top of the agenda and escalating oil prices were starting to cast a huge shadow across the very notion of cheap flights.

'People were asking where the profit was,' says Hougaard. 'There was no real obvious support for the share price where it was.'

So it proved. At the beginning of May, easyJet announced their first profits warning, citing competition as a factor behind a likely drop in earnings. The stock shifted over 25% on the day, moving from around 300p to little more than 220p.

Worse was to follow for the optimists when the ballooning oil price caused a second warning in early June. The stock proceeded to lose a further 24% of its value, leaving it sitting at one point on a record intra-day low of 152.5p, or well over 50% lower than its high point at the start of the year. Good money for those who went short on the stock but an especially harsh lesson for anyone who forgot one of market's basic rules of thumb - profit warnings tend to come in twos.

The easyJet tale illustrates the old saying: never try to catch a falling knife. Judging when a stock or an index has hit bottom is a particularly hard task, even for professionals. Just mention the name Marconi to any spread better and watch the blood drain from their faces. Even with stop-losses in place, your remaining balance can be severely hurt by such sudden shocks and too many of these can leave you facing an unwelcome margin call.

Things can only get better (sometimes)
Sometimes, on the other hand, the knife has fallen as far as it can possibly go and once more punters can find that opportunity knocks. Such a story from the recent past involves office rental firm Regus. It suffered an absolute hammering from mid-2001 to late 2002 when the office market hit a downturn and rental income fell off a cliff both in the UK and, particularly, in the US. At its lowest, the share price hit 3p.

Now admittedly, with the company struggling to stay afloat, it takes a leap of faith to go long even at that kind of price. But with such little down side, this one was as close as you could get to a free bet and so it proved to be. Though no doubt tortuous for the management, the reorganization eventually was seen to be making headway and the share price recovered in sympathy. By the time the company was back on an even keel, the shares reached a high in March this year of 78p. For those in the habit of running their winners, it would have added up to a very healthy profit indeed.

Even when the markets look to be at their bleakest - as at various times over the past three and a bit years - it is clear that there is money to be made. Volatility is its own reward and for those paying attention, mergers and acquisitions can give even the most fallen of angels a glimmer of hope.

Sorting the wheat from the chaff in terms of what is and isn't reliable information on possible bid targets is no easy task. Combine the rumour mills of the City and the newspapers and you have a system that often feeds off nothing much more than hot air.

But if even dowdy old M&S can be forced to dump its chief executive and chairman overnight in favour of Stuart Rose's new broom, then anything can happen. Bear in mind here that the clock is already ticking on the new boss's makeover challenge. Philip Green may have been thwarted this time, but nothing lasts forever, so keep your bid buying boots handy.

For 'Takeover tittle-tattle', click the 'How To' button.

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